28 May 2025
The Enhanced Geothermal Shot, led by the U.S. Department of Energy, aims to reduce the cost of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) by 90%, to $45 per megawatt-hour by 2035. This initiative has the potential to unlock affordable clean energy for over 65 million American homes, while significantly expanding geothermal heating and cooling solutions across the nation.
Geothermal energy presents a major opportunity for U.S. economic growth, particularly in rural communities. Its synergy with the oil and gas industry, through shared technologies, infrastructure, and workforce, offers a practical transition pathway from fossil fuels to clean energy. This transition supports communities historically reliant on fossil fuel industries, creating a more inclusive and resilient clean energy economy.
By 2030, the geothermal construction market is projected to exceed $10 billion annually, generating high-quality jobs and reinforcing U.S. leadership in renewable energy. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), geothermal power plants boast an impressive 92% capacity factor, outperforming gas (87%), coal (85%), and intermittent sources like wind (34%) or solar PV (25%). With Earth's heat as a virtually limitless source, geothermal energy offers a sustainable, long-term power solution, provided water management is done responsibly. In the U.S., geothermal plants cost around $2,500/kW to build, or $3,000–$5,000/kW for smaller ones, with $0.01–$0.03/kWh O&M.
To further accelerate Enhanced Geothermal Shot deployment, a Machine Learning-Accelerated Multi-Objective Optimization approach ALEMO has been introduced. ALEMO integrates hydrothermal simulations with probabilistic neural networks to predict Pareto dominance and identify the most promising solutions. By applying surrogate models and attention-based subspace search, it dramatically reduces computational demands, achieving optimization speeds 10 to 100 times faster than traditional methods. This cutting-edge algorithm enhances design efficiency and decision-making in complex geothermal systems.
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