Would You Believe It? BECCS Is Taking Off and Creating Overlooked, Lucrative Opportunities

BECCS

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is emerging as a key climate solution with strong economic incentives, particularly in the United States. The 45Q tax credit, renewable energy credits (RECs), and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credits combine to make BECCS financially attractive. With 9 GW of biomass power plants currently operating in the Lower 48 states, the groundwork for expanding bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is well established.

• The demand for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is expected to grow alongside projected load increases from energy-intensive users like data centres. Analysts forecast load growth of up to 4.4 GW by 2035 in regions with existing biomass plants, especially in the Southeast and Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) territories. This creates a ripe opportunity for new BECCS projects to leverage existing infrastructure and incentive stacks.
• Since 2019, the CDR market has expanded rapidly with a 688% compound annual growth rate. This technology accounts for 60% of all CDR credits transacted to date, with an average credit price around $387 per tonne. Microsoft leads this market, responsible for 95% of sales. BECCS transactions typically involve large volumes around 500,000 tonnes much higher than direct air capture (DAC) credits, which are more expensive but traded at lower volumes.
• However, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage faces challenges from its complexity and resource demands. The process includes biomass production, fuel conversion, power generation, CO₂ storage, and infrastructure investments, resulting in cost variability and scalability limits. Land availability for biomass and storage capacity are major constraints. Most projections suggest bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could capture 2.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ annually by mid-century helpful but far below the 1,380 MtCO₂ needed to achieve net-zero.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly important role in optimizing BECCS. AI models predict flue gas flow rates and compositions in real time, improving chemical absorption efficiency. Additionally, AI helps balance heat supply and CO₂ capture demand in combined heat and power (CHP) systems, boosting capture rates and lowering costs. These innovations are expected to support wider bioenergy with carbon capture and storage deployment and cost reductions.