U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol market A Rising Star in Clean Fuel Alternatives

The U.S. starch-based bioethanol market size surpassed USD 6.1 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach around USD 8.77 billion by 2034, registering a CAGR of 3.69% from 2025 to 2034. The market is experiencing strong growth stemming from increased demand for cleaner fuels, government support through mandates like the Renewable Fuel Standard, and evolving fermentation and feedstock processing technology. Growing awareness over greenhouse gas emissions is fueling the need for more sustainability, and the availability of large quantities of starch-rich crops, like corn and wheat, can fuel expanded bioethanol production that will continue to grow scalability potential. Market expansion will also be fueled by a movement toward energy independence and rural economic development. Corn has the largest share of bioethanol produced due to starch-rich feedstock characteristics, availability, and established stringent infrastructure.

Highlights of the U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market

• By feedstock type, the corn segment dominated the market and is expected to sustain the position with the fastest rate of growth.
• By feedstock type, the wheat segment underwent notable growth in the market during 2024.

Industry Valuation and Growth Rate Projection

Bioethanol from starch is a renewable fuel that is produced by fermenting starch feedstocks, which include corn, potato, rice, barley, sorghum grain, sweet potato, and sago. Bioethanol can replace gasoline fuel and is used in the transportation sector for passenger and commercial vehicles, in industry as a solvent, and as a chemical feedstock. Bioethanol is a great alternative to conventional petrol, which is often used as a blend of ethanol and gasoline in blended products ranging from E5 to E85 and even E89. Countries like Brazil have successfully transitioned to E100 use. These biofuels burn cleaner compared to traditional fuel, leading to lower greenhouse gas emissions.

The increased focus on biofuels and chemicals means that starch-based bioethanol is starting to be used in bioplastics, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics. There are federal incentives for biofuels production, an increase in demand for sustainable fuels, signaling an increasing area for potential new markets in this type of business. The production of bioethanol produces jobs in agriculture and energy, and more uses and demand for crops provide the opportunity for economic development, particularly in rural areas. These factors have all lead to high demand in the U.S. market for starch-based bioethanol.

U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market: Stats and Figures

• Approximately 94% of U.S. ethanol is produced from corn; ethanol content exceeds 10% in over 98% of all gasoline at pumps.
• According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of January 1, 2024, U.S. fuel ethanol production capacity totaled 18.01 billion gallons/year across 187 plants.
• A study done by Agricultural Research Services scientists found that in 2008 found that sweet potatoes grown in the states of Maryland and Alabama yielded 2-3 times as much carbohydrate for fuel ethanol production compared to field corn that grows there. This was also observed for the Alabamian tropical cassava.

How AI has Benefited the U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market?

The U.S. starch-based bioethanol market is growing through emerging artificial intelligence (AI) in the bioethanol sector to enhance both production and efficiency feedstocks, while at the same time applying emerging technologies to create efficiency in bioethanol feedstock management. AI-based machine learning models will help predict the scale of fermentation, enhance enzyme activity, which leads to enhanced yield, and ultimately, a better-quality product.

A bioethanol producer named Green Plains Inc. has rolled out AI-enabled sensor technology that can provide producers with real-time fermentation values that aim to limit waste of the resource while maximizing the fermentation production values. Predictive analytics tools will also allow bioethanol producers to manage disruption in supply chains, disruption in crop yield, demand, forecasted future agricultural trends, or allow makers of bioethanol to make decision-related adaptations quicker. Ultimately, at a higher level, AI for precision agriculture will help assist bioethanol feedstock production in terms of optimized irrigation for corn and wheat production, and impact fertilization or agronomy practices that enhance sustainability.

U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market Dynamics

Drivers

How Is the U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market Driven by Strong Government Support and Policy Incentives?

One of the biggest drivers for the U.S. starch-based bioethanol market is strong government support. The U.S. has the Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires the blending of renewable fuels such as starch-based bioethanol into the fuel supply to create constant demand. The federal and state-level tax credit also encourages production, along with carbon reduction targets, which motivate auto manufacturers and fuel suppliers to make cleaner fuels. The consistency provided by the regulatory base allows for better demand and a reduction of investment risk for bioethanol producers. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has also extended clean energy tax credits that will help fuel and edible innovations, all the while continuing to build bioethanol infrastructure across the U.S.

American Starch-Based Bioethanol Strengthens Energy Security and Rural Economy

Bioethanol reduces reliance on petroleum imports for the U.S. Thus, bioethanol is also an aspect of national energy security, and because starch-based ethanol is produced from crops grown domestically in the U.S. (mostly corn), this approach creates a controlled, concentrated, and stable supply chain. We believe this type or category of fuel or biofuel provides economic choice or flexibility, especially when geopolitical or market shocks occur. The bioethanol industry affords rural communities in terms of jobs and markets, as well as value-added processes related to the bioethanol industry, such as farming bioethanol, moving bioethanol, and processing bioethanol.

Restraints

What Challenges Are Faced by the U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market?

One of the major challenges faced by the U.S. starch-based bioethanol market is the “food vs. fuel” conflict. The quantity of corn and wheat that is normally allocated to humans and livestock is being turned into bioethanol, which is enough to raise questions about the market implications of food inflation and food security. Detractors point out that making fuel a prize and if that creates rising grain prices in every country, it should be expected, and action should be considered. This challenge to the use of feedstocks usually creates a backlash of government policy and questions presented by consumers. Climate variability also affects the yield quantity, which can further complicate the nature of bioethanol production and quantity of food supply, along with the many discussions regarding raw material sourcing available to the stakeholders in the bioethanol industry.

High Water and Energy Usage

Bioethanol production's high water and energy use raises sustainability concerns in the U.S. It can take up to 3 gallons of water to produce 1 gallon of ethanol from corn crops, the majority of which is for the growing of the feedstock crop and cooling systems. Production costs will only be compounded during a drought, and with the increasing price of energy. So, the inefficiencies of running will diminish the total environmental impact and lead the producer to regulatory issues. Producers must also find ways to invest in water recycling systems and energy-efficient technology that have initial capital costs. Further, sustainability demands are increasing, meaning that this high resource use will ultimately be a hindrance to growth in the U.S. starch-based bioethanol market.

Opportunity

What Are the U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market Opportunities?

The development of hybrid and drought-resistant corn and wheat varieties that can increase starch content and yield ethanol is extremely promising and constitutes a major opportunity in the U.S. starch-based bioethanol market. Developments in second-generation bioethanol - looking at agricultural waste alongside starch - will help to improve sustainability and yield. If demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) continues to develop, starch-based ethanol could, as a feedstock, be an important pathway to ethanol-to-jet fuel, and many ethanol producers are diversifying revenue opportunities. New markets such as biochemicals and bioplastics may enable you to diversify away from traditional fuel markets and hedge against the future.

Industry Leader Announcements

• Deepak Munganahalli, co-founder and director at SAF One, said:

"Our acquisition of Green Biotrade represents a significant milestone in our mission to accelerate sustainable aviation fuel production.” “By integrating Green Biotrade's extensive trading expertise and robust feedstock network, we are enhancing our ability to source, secure, and manage the critical biomass resources essential for our SAF production. This move underscores our commitment to building a comprehensive and resilient supply chain that can support the growing demand for clean aviation fuels."

• Todd Becker, president and chief executive officer of Green Plains Inc., said:

“As we embark on 2025, we have launched a corporate reorganization and cost reduction initiative which will significantly reduce expenses on an ongoing basis, As part of this initiative we are targeting up to $50 million of savings per year and have implemented this week the first $30 million in improvements on an ongoing basis. Over the last several years, we have strategically allocated capital in sales, marketing, and innovation to develop and validate our ingredients and get them to market, and we are moving from that phase to the commercialization phase of our strategy, which includes the rationalization of expenses.”

U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market Segmental Insights

Feedstock Insights

Corn is the most common feedstock and is the fastest-growing feedstock in the U.S. starch-based bioethanol market. Corn has a high starch content, a continual supply, and an established processing infrastructure, and receives federal support. In 2023, more than 40% of the U.S. corn harvest went into the ethanol market. Corn-based ethanol has a tremendous yield per acre, and the larger scale of production creates better economies of scale compared with other feedstocks. New research and developments involving genetically modified corn improve the starch yield and fermentation time, thereby contributing to the growth of corn in the bioethanol space. All of these factors contribute to corn remaining dominant and rapidly growing in the bioethanol space.

Wheat, as a feedstock, is anticipated to grow considerably in the U.S. starch-based bioethanol market, especially in wheat-producing areas, particularly without corn, at a significant level. Soft wheat that is primarily starch-based is being utilized in production whenever a corn shortage crosses its path, creating a view in many ethanol producers to use wheat to diversify their feed supply of feedstock, the western brokerage supply chain. Wheat, with its shorter growing seasons, also affords greater flexibility during the extensive climate variability in the region. Some ethanol plants are also exploring dual feedstock capability, showing that wheat will be more widely used and recognized by these ethanol producers. As biofuel mandates continue to drive the need for non-corn-based industrial-scale ethanol production, wheat offers a real potential opportunity to unbundle feedstock availability with little disruption to food supply chains.

Recent Developments in the U.S. Starch-Based Bioethanol Market:

• In June 2025, the Trump Administration's EPA proposed increasing renewable fuel blending quotas to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion in 2027, an increase from 22.33 billion in 2025 as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard. This would also limit RINs that come from imports instead of only having RINs from biofuels produced in the US. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins remarked, "USDA and EPA have never been more aligned on the fact that we need more biofuels produced from American-grown crops," and Geoff Cooper of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) claimed it's a big growth opportunity for farmers.
• In May 2025, after the UK–US trade agreement, the agreement for a 1.4 billion liter quota for tariff-free U.S. ethanol has led to concerns over the future of Vivergo in Hull. ABF CEO George Weston alerted the Government to the possibility of cheap subsidized imports, making their operations "commercially unviable" and subsequently jeopardizing their plant and 150 jobs in Hull. The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) expressed similar concerns about the weakening markets that UK growers operate in.
• In January 2025, SAF One acquired Green Biotrade, a UAE-based company, to bolster its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock sources. SAF One co-founder Deepak Munganahalli called the deal a "landmark deal" that will support biomass sourcing. Green Biotrade CEO Hani Samsam said the deal is "an exciting new chapter" aligned with SAF One's vision.

Competitive Landscape

• Company Name: Archer Daniels Midland Company
• Year of Incorporation: 1923
• Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois

With operations in over 170 countries, ADM is a global agribusiness powerhouse. The company produces a wide variety of products, including ethanol, food ingredients, and animal feed. It engages in ongoing research and development for carbon capture and other types of next-gen biofuels.

• Company Name: Green Plains Inc.
• Year of Incorporation: 2004
• Headquarters: Omaha, Nebraska

Green Plains Inc. is based in North America and works in the area of sustainable ethanol and protein production. The company is differentiating itself through its use of AI-enabled biorefineries and is focused on ultra-high protein animal feed and low-carbon fuel.

• Company Name: POET Biorefining
• Year of Incorporation: 1987
• Headquarters: Sioux Falls, South Dakota

POET is the biggest bioethanol producer in the world, with over 30 plants located in the United States. POET produces ethanol from starch and works on making materials from lignin. It engages in research and development regarding cellulosic biofuels and has focused on zero-waste bio-refining and bioprocessing.